COVID-19 Will Change The World
The fight against COVID-19 is likely to last until a vaccine is created, which is expected to be 12-18 months. This time frame will have intermittent periods of isolation and normalcy, according to Imperial College’s study that’s driving policy in the US and UK. Even after a vaccine is made, there will need to be a recovery time. These next 2+ years are going to change the world. We’re going to have to live differently, and when it’s over, things aren’t just going to go back to the way they were before. Here are my predictions for some of the ways the COVID-19 outbreak will change things.
Isolation is already shaking up how companies work. The ongoing supply chain nightmares are going to run many companies out of business, and the unemployment rate will mean new companies will eventually have to arise that are more capable in this environment. After two years, the ones that are still standing will likely rethink their work from home policies if they managed to function through this. Working remotely has been a growing economic trend, and this could certainly accelerate that growth.
In a world where more people work remotely, relocation trends would change, with one of its biggest factors - jobs - playing less of a role. People will move for proximity to family/friends, local amenities (nightlife, natural scenery, weather, etc.), and other economic reasons, like taxes. We’ll see ski towns, and cities near natural beauty boom more than they already are. We’ll see more gentrification, with people moving to cheaper areas without needing a job there and thus driving up prices. Albuquerque will be a strong target for this - great weather, mountains nearby, and cheap. Boise and western Montana will also boom, I think.
Education will be redefined, with the already-growing trend of online education getting the weight of the entire education system behind it. People will definitely go back to school in person, but after setting up the infrastructure already, there will be more schools than ever offering online classes. In-person classes may be seen as less of a necessity for college, especially with the student loan burden Millennials and older members of Gen Z are carrying.
With a boom of digital study resources about to come, grade school teachers would be foolish not to continue taking advantage of them even once we return to classrooms. A teacher’s job will evolve into more of a facilitator role. The school districts that haven’t already will replace textbooks with tablets and laptops. This will be a necessity in order to continue educating students while isolated, and I hope to see emergency funds go towards making this happen. With this new infrastructure, you can have lessons specialized to each student, and they can go at their own speed. We’ll see more young wiz kids in college than before.
Then there’s the economy. With supply chains getting locked up, we will see a push to more local supply chains to reduce logistics. In the meantime, things are going to slow down, and at this point I’d be surprised if we don’t end up in a long recession. Markets are dropping at record rates, and many of the tools used to stimulate the economy are already spent. The Fed has already bottomed out the interest rate, and the deficit is already sky-high. Pair that with plummeting revenues in numerous industries due to isolation measures, record rates of corporate debt, and 40% of people one paycheck from poverty, and we could be in for an ugly ride.
Large companies with lots of cash will likely weather the storm better than smaller companies, and markets will become less competitive as companies continue to become more monopolistic. We’ll need to get back into trust-busting, or risk further stress on the middle and lower class. The gaming and streaming industries will see a spike in demand, and we’ll likely see more push for AR and VR, as people look for new and better forms of entertainment while locked up inside.
During a recession, people with excess money - the wealthy - can come out ahead by buying into a down market, since they don’t need to put all of their money toward survival. This, mixed with bailout money mainly ending up in the pockets of the wealthy, leads to increased inequality after a recession. This time could be even more extreme in that sense, because the jobs that are more easily done remotely are typically higher-paying. This all could spell a big problem for the working and middle class. Social safety nets will be more important than ever, and I hope it raises awareness as to why they are important and valuable to a society, so we can push for stronger ones.
In the aftermath of the Great Recession of 2008, we saw a social movement in the form of Occupy Wallstreet. If this period continues to increase hardship for non-elites, we could see an even bigger equivalent social movement. On the other hand, times of turmoil, whether economic, social, or health-related, also give an opportunity for politicians aspiring to grow their authority to make power grabs. COVID-19 will put us at a disadvantage if this happens, as protests will likely be out of the question with an active pandemic. We’ll need to be vigilant about holding our politicians to within their Constitutional powers by contacting our representatives and senators if someone makes a power grab. We’ll also need to be thoughtful about who we support in the upcoming elections - supporting those who support checks and balances and the rule of law (I wrote more on that in this post).
Globally, isolationism was already on the rise, and COVID-19 will speed that up more, as countries limit international travel and are forced to become more self-sufficient. This could put stress on international relations. On the other hand, the outbreak could have a similar impact to WWII, by drawing attention back to the fact that we need to work together for the best results for all. I certainly hope we pick the latter.
Domestically, we need to think about the logistics of our election day. People will be hesitant to go to polls and stand around a bunch of people when there’s a pandemic. Every state should be pushing to have mail-in voting, as some states have already. If we can make this happen, I hope it sticks; mail-in voting is a positive change for democracy, as it makes it easier for everyone to vote.
This pandemic will cause us to think about what the government should be spending time and money on. Hopefully it convinces us to start trusting the experts again and shows us that preemptive measures taken by entities like the CDC are actually valuable, and not things that should be cut for short-term gains. If we’re lucky, this mentality will spill over to climate change, where more preemptive action is desperately needed. With the added optics once a COVID-19 vaccine is created, the anti-vax movement will either die out or become a bigger political issue, hopefully ending with tighter laws on requirements.
For all the hardships it’s going to cause - and it will cause a lot, boy will it cause a lot - the silver lining is that COVID-19 will certainly be a driver of change. People, on average, don’t like much change, but the coming months/years are going to force us to change quickly. If we work together, we can make those changes be for the better. I fully expect that, once a COVID-19 vaccine is developed, and the economy recovers, we will officially be in “the future” that’s been talked about for decades. With vigilance and thoughtfulness, it can be the utopian one, not the dystopian one.
One thing I’ve come to realize is that the best way to get humans to work together is to unite against a common opponent. Sports teams work together to beat the other teams. Religions unite people against some manifestation of evil, like the devil. Back in WWII, the USA was united against brutal foreign regimes, and the country boomed. Today, our “other side” is ourselves. People are referred to as “conservatives” or “liberals”, when they all used to be “Americans”, who happened to be conservative/liberal. This mindset means gridlock in Washington, while other countries continue to adapt to changing times faster than us. If we really want to make America great again, we need to bring people together, not drive them apart. The best way to do that is to use a common enemy to unite against, and COVID-19 could very well be our best option in a long time to unite against. It’s a threat to all of humanity, no matter what country, political party, religion, race, or economic bracket, so everyone has skin in the game. Everyone wants us, as an entire species, to come out ahead. We need to take advantage of this and try to become better as a team, by doing what’s best for everyone. We need to stay away from hateful rhetoric and instead talk about what we could all do to make this country, and world, better for everyone, because we’re better when we work together.
United we stand, divided we fall, and right now, we’re pretty divided.
I hope we can unite against COVID-19.
